EU Drug Market: Amphetamine — Retail markets

This resource is part of EU Drug Market: Amphetamine — In-depth analysis by the EMCDDA and Europol.

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Last update: October 2023

The minimum estimated annual value of the retail market for amphetamine in the EU is EUR 1.1 billion, with a range of EUR 0.9 billion to EUR 1.4 billion. Estimates of the amounts used suggest that about 90 tonnes of amphetamine and methamphetamine combined (likely range: 70 to 107 tonnes) was consumed in the EU in 2021. Frequent users (people who use amphetamines more than 11 times per year, or at least once a month) are thought to account for approximately 97 % (87 tonnes) of the total amount consumed in the EU.

Amphetamine market size estimate

Although amphetamine is much more commonly used than methamphetamine in most countries, it is difficult to estimate the size of the EU amphetamine retail market because in some countries it is not possible to separate amphetamine from methamphetamine in the relevant datasets. Of particular importance for these market size estimates is the fact that most general population surveys do not distinguish between these two substances, in part because many users are unaware if the consume amphetamine or methamphetamine. For this reason, a generic ‘amphetamines’ estimate is calculated. It is assumed that this is generally amphetamine, except in the case of Czechia and Cyprus where other data indicate that methamphetamine use is more common. Surveys that group amphetamine and methamphetamine together, conducted by 25 EU countries between 2016 and 2022 suggest that 1.3 million young adults (15 to 34) used amphetamines during the last year (1.3 % of this age group).

Using the methodology established by the EMCDDA (2019b), it is possible to estimate the size of the retail amphetamine market, based on the number of users and their use patterns, the amount they consume per year and the average price paid at the retail level. Such estimates are, however, prone to underestimation due to misreporting or under-reporting of use (Udrisard et al., 2022).

The estimated number of users comes from two standard data sources on drug use: the number of problematic users in the EU and the prevalence of amphetamines use, based on general population surveys. Data are available about high-risk opioid users who also use amphetamines and these are assumed to be frequent users. Since the problematic use of amphetamines is a significant issue in some countries, estimates of the numbers of such users have been produced. These estimates for high‐risk amphetamines use were included in the market size calculations.

Because prevalence rates for amphetamines use are low, overall, general population surveys carried out in most countries do not capture sufficient numbers of last-month users to provide robust data on frequency of use in the last month. Hence, it is only possible to distinguish two broad groups of users based on frequency: infrequent users, who used less than once a month or less than 11 times a year, and frequent users, who used on 11 or more days a year or at least once a month.

The amount used annually and the average price per gram in each EU Member State is obtained from the European Web Survey on Drugs. By combining these data, the minimum annual value of the retail market for amphetamines in the EU is estimated to be EUR 1.3 billion, with a range of EUR 1.0 billion to EUR 1.6 billion. Estimates of amounts used suggest that about 90 tonnes of amphetamine and methamphetamine combined (likely range: 70 to 107 tonnes) were consumed in the EU in 2021. Frequent users are thought to account for approximately 97 % (87 tonnes) of the total amount consumed in the EU.

Adjusting for methamphetamine use in Czechia

The main market for methamphetamine use in the EU is in Czechia, so an approximation of the EU amphetamine market can be made by subtracting the national Czech estimate from the overall EU amphetamines estimate. The value of the retail market size for Czechia has been calculated at EUR 180.60 million (range: EUR 122.60 million to EUR 228.90 million) (EMCDDA and Europol, 2022). Using these data, it is estimated that the overall minimum value of the EU amphetamine retail market is EUR 1.1 billion, with a range of EUR 0.9 billion to EUR 1.4 billion.

Wastewater-based approach to estimate drug markets

Drug residue measurements in wastewater show some promise as a method for estimating city-level drug consumption (Van Nuijs et al., 2011), since the amount found in wastewater is directly related to the quantity of that drug consumed by the population served by the relevant treatment plant. In a study commissioned for this analysis (Udrisard et al., 2022), wastewater estimates were found to give different results, either higher or lower, than demand estimates, depending on the drug concerned. Estimates for amphetamine use based on wastewater sampling were found to be ‘very problematic’, producing figures far lower than the demand-based estimate.

There are some unique factors that complicate the use of wastewater data to estimate amphetamine markets. First, a portion of the amphetamine detected may be the result of methamphetamine use, since the former is a metabolite of the latter. Compound-specific metabolites for amphetamine are not routinely measured within wastewater monitoring campaigns. Second, a small proportion of the amphetamine detected could be the result of prescribed medication for the treatment of attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder. However, since amphetamine is only given to a limited number of patients, the contribution from this source is probably negligible. However, the impact of licit use is expected to vary across countries and should be investigated further (Quireyns et al., 2023).

It is possible, however, to calculate an estimate of city-level market size using wastewater data combined with average retail purity and average retail price (albeit with the latter two figures based on country-level reporting). In a study commissioned for this report, the likely size of the retail amphetamine market for three cities in Belgium and five cities in Sweden was calculated (see Table Estimated value of amphetamine consumed in selected European cities, 2020). It is interesting to note that while the population of the Belgian capital, Brussels, is only marginally higher than that of Sweden’s capital, Stockholm, the value of the amphetamine retail market in the latter is almost 20 times greater. This reflects not only the higher levels of amphetamine use in Stockholm, but also the relatively higher-price and high-purity market, contrasting with the lower-price and high-purity market in Belgium. Data analysis such as this, while affected by a number of limitations and uncertainties, shows great potential as a complementary information source for monitoring drug markets (Quireyns et al., 2023).

Estimated value of amphetamine consumed in selected European cities, 2020

Use and possession offences

Drug law offence statistics mainly provide insights on the implementation of drug laws. They are driven primarily by law enforcement activities, and are therefore influenced by factors that affect these activities and by registration and reporting practices. Amphetamine offences represent about 5 % of all drug law offences reported in 2021 for which the drug is known (approximately 43 000 of the total 940 000 drug law offences). The vast majority of the amphetamine drug law offences (about 94 %) relate to drug possession or use, with about 6 % relating to supply offences. It is worth noting that some Member States and Türkiye separately report drug law offences related to captagon tablets, and as such these are not included in the total number of amphetamine offences.

Wastewater-based epidemiology

Data from wastewater analyses conducted in European cities are useful for visualising the pattern of amphetamine consumption across the continent. However, an important limitation is that the coverage is not uniform across the EU (see Figure Relative geographical distribution of amphetamine as detected in wastewater in European cities, 2022 (daily mean)).

According to the latest data available (2022), the mass loads of amphetamine detected in wastewater varied considerably across study locations. As in previous years, the highest levels were reported in cities in the north and east of Europe, with much lower levels in cities in the south of Europe. Of the 55 cities with data for both 2021 and 2022, 20 reported an increase, 9 a stable situation and 26 noted a decrease. The highest mass loads were found in cities in Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden.

In 2021 and 2022, amphetamine loads detected in wastewater were found to be distributed more evenly over the whole week than in previous years, possibly reflecting the use of these drugs being associated with more regular consumption by a cohort of high-risk users.

Web survey

Web-based surveys can be a quick and inexpensive tool for collecting information from relatively large numbers of people who use drugs. While their results cannot be generalised to the population as a whole, or indeed to all people who use drugs, they can paint a detailed and timely picture of drug consumption and purchasing patterns, as well as providing a useful complement to conventional data-collection methods. One such survey is the European Web Survey on Drugs (EWSD), which since 2016 has supported the EMCDDA and national decision-makers in gathering in-depth data on the drug situation in Europedrug users. While their results cannot be generalised to the population as a whole, or indeed to all people who use drugs, they can paint a detailed and timely picture of drug consumption and purchasing patterns, as well as providing a useful complement to traditional data-collection methods. One such survey is the European Web Survey on Drugs (EWSD), which since 2016 has supported the EMCDDA and national decision-makers in gathering in-depth data on the drug situation in Europe (see Section Methodology).

Across the 21 EU countries and Switzerland that were covered in the 2021 round of the EWSD, 13 433 respondents (roughly 28 % of all survey participants) stated that they had used amphetamine in the last 12 months. Among this group, the proportion who reported mostly buying the drug or obtaining it for free varied widely between countries. For example, 83 % of the Bulgarian respondents reported mostly buying the drug, compared with only 43 % of the Swiss respondents. Further, 52 % of respondents in Slovakia and Switzerland reported mostly getting the drug for free, compared with 15 % of the Bulgarian respondents. This indicates that practices of sharing amphetamine among peer groups may differ between countries in Europe.

A proportion of these respondents provided detailed information, enabling further analysis of how amphetamine is retailed in Europe, including how it is usually bought and delivered (N = 4 615). A clear majority of respondents (80 %) bought amphetamine directly from a dealer, in person, via phone, mail or text message (see Figure In the last 12 months, how did you usually buy amphetamine?). A number of respondents also reported using the darknet (15 %) and social media (6 %). The use of these methods differed between countries, possibly indicating that some purchasing practices are more common in some countries than in others. For example, the proportion of those buying amphetamine directly from a dealer ranged from 68 % in Latvia (¹) to 98 % in Bulgaria, and figures for the use of the darknet ranged from 0 % in Bulgaria and Slovakia to about 36 % in Finland. The use of social media stood out in Estonia and Latvia, at 15 % and 17 % of respondents, respectively. It should be noted, however, that the sample sizes were small in several countries.

More than three quarters of EWSD respondents (76 %) reported meeting their dealer outside as the usual method for receiving drugs, followed by home delivery (21 %) (see Figure In the last 12 months, how was the amphetamine usually delivered to you?). An equal percentage of respondents reported delivery through regular mail or postage, and picking the drugs up from a location without any personal contact (7 %). Similarly, these findings indicate differences between European countries. For instance, the proportion of those who reported picking up from a location without any personal contact ranged from 1 % in Bulgaria to 38 % in Romania, while figures for the use of postal services ranged from 0 % in Bulgaria to 23 % in Sweden. However, it is again important to note the small sample sizes in a number of countries.

Source data

(1) Excluding countries with fewer than 10 respondents to this module.

References

Consult the list of references used in this resource.